It’s tough at the bottom!

Nobody was really surprised last weekend when the first relegation of the season was confirmed, Egham Town the side unlucky enough to win the competition that everyone wants to lose. The Sarnies had improved dramatically over recent weeks, but sadly for all at Runnymede it was too little, too late, and defeat at Hertford Town sent them down.

What’s perhaps most surprising, however, is that Egham are the only side so far confirmed relegated. That may change this weekend, so we thought we’d focus on the matches that are important at the wrong end of the table.

Premier Division

Potters Bar Town, Kingstonian, Corinthian-Casuals and AFC Hornchurch aren’t mathematically safe, but with the first trio on that list having a eight point gap between them and the bottom three with only three matches remaining it would take something rather surprising to see them go down. The Urchins will be hoping much the same, their gap being six points.

On that basis, our bottom three are likely to come from the quartet of Whitehawk, Wingate & Finchley, Burgess Hill Town and Harlow Town.

From our two sets of Hawks, it is the Sussex birds of prey who are in the best position at the moment. Outside the bottom three on goal difference, victory over AFC Hornchurch last weekend gave them hope, but they have only that victory and five defeats from their last six games. They start their Easter programme on Saturday, and will have to work hard to defeat playoff chasing Merstham, before travelling to Bognor Regis Town on Easter Monday. There was a time when their fans used to sing about “Never, ever, ever, going back to Bognor,” but all they will want now is the chance to head back there again next season.

Whitehawk’s final match of the season sees them entertain Corinthian-Casuals on April 27th.

It’s difficult to know what to make of third-bottom Wingate and Finchley. They’ve won our Performance of the Month award more often than any other side in the division this season, which proves conclusively that when they’re good, they’re very good indeed. The problem is that they haven’t been good often enough. Behind Whitehawk on goal difference, they entertain Margate on Saturday having lost their previous three matches- although Margate’s form has slipped recently, too- and then on Easter Monday travel to second placed Haringey Borough. Their final match of the season, on 27th, might be a real six pointer- as the visitors are Burgess Hill Town.

Burgess Hill Town have suddenly developed the ability to win football matches. With ten points from their last fifteen, the Hillians are the form side of our quartet, and on-loan striker Tommy Wood is in red hot form, with five goals in five matches. One point behind Whitehawk and Wingate & Finchley, they have three difficult games in prospect. They start on Good Friday with a trip to red-hot Carshalton Athletic, before entertaining Lewes on Easter Monday. They finish their campaign with that trip to Wingate & Finchley on Saturday 27th.

Finally, Harlow Town are only three points from safety- although with a vastly inferior goal difference. The other Hawks got a draw at Bognor Regis Town last time out, ending a run of four successive defeats which saw them concede twenty goals. Harlow have perhaps the easiest run in of the four, hosting Enfield Town on Saturday followed by a trip to AFC Hornchurch on Easter Monday. They end the season with a home match against Margate.

North Division

Champions decided, playoff places confirmed, the most interesting thing about the North Division at the moment is the battle to stay up. Three sides are competing to escape the two relegation places.

Witham Town are the best placed of the trio, with a three point cushion over second bottom Romford and a six point lead over Mildenhall Town. The problem for Witham is that over the last few weeks they haven’t been able to win so much as an argument. One point from the last twenty-one has seen what seemed like a sizeable gap between Town and the relegation positions whittled away, and they may need to find some points rather quickly if they are to escape. On Saturday they travel to Brentwood Town, before hosting promotion-chasing Maldon & Tiptree on Easter Monday. Their final match is at Basildon United on 27th.

The side most likely to catch Witham is Romford. They’ll be hoping that their new landlords, Brentwood, do them a big favour on Saturday, but they still need to win games themselves if they are to reprise last season’s great escape. Romford have to make up that three point gap and improve their goal difference, but after two 3-1 victories in a row they have hope, and momentum, on their side. On Saturday they host Soham Town Rangers, before travelling to Grays Athletic on Easter Monday. They finish their programme on 27th, when they host Felixstowe and Walton United.

Finally, Mildenhall Town have three matches in which to make up a six point deficit. Coincidentally they also have to take on Grays and Felixstowe- but they start their Easter fixtures when they entertain Canvey Island on Saturday. They’re off to the seaside on Easter Monday, before hosting Grays on 27th.

South Central Division

We’ve already said goodbye to Egham Town, but who will be joining them? It could be one of four clubs- FC Romania, Hertford Town, South Park or Molesey.

It’s unlikely to be FC Romania. The Wolves have a six point advantage over the Moles, five points over Sparks, and four points over Town, so you have to expect that their matches against Uxbridge on Saturday (away), Egham on Easter Monday (home) and Tooting & Mitcham United on 27th (away) will see them confirm their status.

On that basis, will we lose Town, Sparks or the Moles?

Town’s 3-1 victory over Egham last weekend saw them open up a two point gap on the bottom two- but they won’t be feeling safe, particularly as that was their first victory since mid-January. They travel to Hanwell Town on Saturday, before hosting promotion-chasing Cheshunt on Easter Monday. They then travel to Bedfont Sports on 27th.

South Park gave themselves a real chance with consecutive victories over Egham and Ashford Town at the end of last month, but since then have fallen to defeat against Westfield and Cheshunt and find themselves only one point from danger. They face their third match in a row against a top five side on Saturday, when they travel to Marlow, before hosting Tooting & Mitcham United- who may still be chasing a playoff place- on Easter Monday. Their final match sees them travel to Waltham Abbey.

After three successive defeats the Moles gave themselves real hope of survival with victory over Chalfont St Peter in midweek. They start their final three matches with the most difficult fixture of all as champions Hayes & Yeading United host them at the Skyex on Saturday. Their final two fixtures see them travel to Chipstead before hosting Northwood on 27th.

South East Division

With only one club going down due to the sad demise of Thamesmead Town, the question is simple. Will it be Guernsey or Greenwich Borough?

Now before you shout, it could, mathematically, be Faversham Town or Sittingbourne, but with the Brickies six points ahead of Greenwich with the Cannons having only two matches remaining, and Town five points clear of our bottom side, it’s not very likely!

Sittingbourne host Hastings United on Saturday before travelling to Herne Bay on Easter Monday and hosting the Green Lions on 27th. Faversham have a trip to Horsham on Easter Saturday, before entertaining Ramsgate on Monday and finishing the season at East Grinstead Town. Both clubs have a significantly better goal difference than Borough.

So we’re down to Greenwich and Guernsey, who drew 1-1 in the Channel Islands last weekend. The Green Lions have a goal difference advantage and a game in hand, so it is undoubtedly in their hands. They travel to Phoenix Sports on Saturday before hosting Horsham on Easter Monday, then finish their campaign with that trip to Sittingbourne on 27th. Borough, who earned that point last weekend with a late penalty save, have two home fixtures, as Whyteleafe visit on Saturday whilst promotion-chasing Hastings United arrive on Saturday 27th.

Good luck to all those involved. We will- of course- bring you all the details as the final act of the season plays out, and we will be covering Wingate & Finchley v Margate for our Bostik Matchday feature on Saturday.