Bostik Premier- the promotion run-in

With six matches yet to go, every club from first to fourteenth could still be involved in the Bostik Premier Division Playoffs. Only eleven points separate Worthing, in fifth place, and Brightlingsea Regent in fourteenth. Only fifteen points separate Regent and Haringey Borough, in second. There are so many variations, but we thought we’d look at the end of season run-in, and do a couple of- entirely unscientific- calculations to predict a final outcome, whilst looking at the crucial matches for our top ten.

Why top ten? Because we had to stop somewhere- so apologies to Bognor, Bishop’s Stortford, Margate and Regent, but let’s get on with this festival of guesswork!

So, let’s look at our last six matchdays, with the scores from the previous matches between the sides from earlier this season shown in brackets:

Saturday 30th March

Brightlingsea Regent (1) Dorking Wanderers (2)
Corinthian-Casuals (3) Carshalton Athletic (2)
Enfield Town (1) Leatherhead (4)
Haringey Borough (1) Lewes (0)
Merstham (0) Burgess Hill Town (3)
Potters Bar Town (0) Folkestone Invicta (2)
Tonbridge Angels (0) Harlow Town (1)

Saturday 6th April

AFC Hornchurch (1) Haringey Borough (3)
Carshalton Athletic (0) Wingate & Finchley (2)
Dorking Wanderers (4) Worthing (1)
Folkestone Invicta (0) Whitehawk (0)
Kingstonian (1) Enfield Town (0)
Leatherhead (2) Tonbridge Angels (0)
Lewes (2) Merstham (3)

Saturday 13th April

Bishop’s Stortford (2) Worthing (1)
Enfield Town (0) Carshalton Athletic (1)
Haringey Borough (4) Kingstonian (0)
Leatherhead (0) Lewes (1)
Merstham (2) Folkestone Invicta (6)
Tonbridge Angels (1) Dorking Wanderers (0)

Friday 19th April

Carshalton Athletic (2) Burgess Hill Town (3)
Worthing (2) Tonbridge Angels (1)

Saturday 20th April

Brightlingsea Regent (1) Leatherhead (0)
Dorking Wanderers (1) Bognor Regis Town (0)
Folkestone Invicta (0) Haringey Borough (1)
Harlow Town (1) Enfield Town (4)
Lewes (2) Bishop’s Stortford (1)
Whitehawk (0) Merstham (1)

Monday 22nd April

Burgess Hill Town (3) Lewes (0)
Corinthian-Casuals (0) Worthing (2)
Enfield Town (2) Potters Bar Town (1)
Haringey Borough (4) Wingate & Finchley (0)
Leatherhead (0) Dorking Wanderers (2)
Margate (0) Folkestone Invicta (1)
Merstham (0) Kingstonian (0)
Tonbridge Angels (0) Carshalton Athletic (3)

Saturday 27th April

Brightlingsea Regent (0) Enfield Town (0)
Carshalton Athletic (1) Bishop’s Stortford (3)
Dorking Wanderers (2) Haringey Borough (3)
Folkestone Invicta (4) Bognor Regis Town (2)
Kingstonian (1) Leatherhead (2)
Lewes (5) AFC Hornchurch (1)
Potters Bar Town (1) Tonbridge Angels (2)
Worthing (0) Merstham (1)

Based on previous results against the same opponents, our top ten will look like this- although of course, much has changed for every team since the first round of fixtures were played. As you can see, Dorking Wanderers would win the title, and promotion, by five points, with Haringey Borough, Merstham, Tonbridge Angels and Worthing taking the playoff places:

1. Dorking Wanderers 87 points
2. Haringey Borough 82 points
3. Merstham 71 points
4. Tonbridge Angels 69 points
5. Worthing 67 points
6. Carshalton Athletic 65 points
7. Leatherhead 64 points
8. Lewes 63 points
9. Folkestone Inv 63 points
10. Enfield Town 62 points

Now, this is where it becomes interesting. If we disregard the previous results against the same opponents, and base our predictions on each club repeating the form they’ve shown over the past six matches during the next six, we get a bit of a change. Dorking Wanderers would still win the title, but Carshalton Athletic would climb to second place, whilst Worthing, Tonbridge Angels and Merstham would be separated only by goal difference. The biggest shock would come at Coles Park, as Haringey Borough would slip out of the top five altogether, leaving them well ahead of seventh place Leatherhead but with no end of season party.

Based on current form:

1. Dorking Wanderers 88 points
2. Carshalton Athletic 75 points
3. Worthing 74 points
4. Tonbridge Angels 74 points
5. Merstham 74 points
6. Haringey Borough 72 points
7. Leatherhead 65 points
8. Enfield Town 63 points
9. Lewes 62 points
10. Folkestone Invicta 58 points

Of course, none of these predictions may come to pass. This is just a bit of fun, after all. But it points towards an extremely exciting last month of action- so make sure you get to as many matches as possible!